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Despite the recent correction, and regardless which popular metric you use; PE, Shiller’s CAPE Ratio, or Buffett’s Market to GDP comparison; this is one of the most expensive markets since 1923. The other two were the 1929 and 2000 markets and we know how those turned out. Incidentally, 1923 was the year the “Composite Index” was introduced, the S&P 500′s precursor.The record shows that, while stock prices can continue at elevated levels for a long time, they eventually reverse to the mean. That can happen in one of two ways. Either the market goes sideways for a long time until earnings catch up, or there is a sharp drop to bring prices in line with historical PE ratios – a reversal to the mean. History has shown that investors are not a patient bunch. They will put up with a sideways market for a while, but eventually they will tire of meager returns and put their money to work where they believe will yield greater gain potential. Once that ball gets rolling, the market exits en masse and a severe bear market takes hold. The upshot: there is a big market drop in store.The question is when and was this past correction a hic-up or a prelude to the big plunge. A study of major bear markets indicates the latter is more likely. Indeed, a review of 28-plus -percent market drops since 1923 reveals there is always a preamble to every major bear market. Some folks are under the mistaken impression that stock market crashes occur at market tops. That is far from the truth.The stock market may well be fickle, but providence is kind. It always gives us advance notice of a coming crash, grabbing our attention amidst our complacency with a surprise drop and providing an opportunity to get out before it crashes in earnest. This is shown in the analysis below for each of the following major bear markets (28% decline or more): 2007, 2000, 1987, 1973, 1968, 1962, 1946, 1937, and 1929. Intraday prices and daily closes are only available for the S&P 500 from 1950 on. Therefore, Dow Jones Industrial Average closes were used for the markets before that.2007
The initial top for the 2007 market came July 17 when the S&P 500 had an intraday high of 1555.90. The index would drop the next week and eventually settle to an intraday low of 1370.60 a month later on August 16 – a drop of 11.9%. Henceforth, all highs and lows are intraday unless otherwise stated. The market would climb for seven weeks to reach a market top for the index of 1576,09 October 11, 2007 – 1.3% higher than its previous high. An initial 5.5% dip was followed by a quick recovery to 1552.76 October 31, before succumbing and dropping 10.8% to a low of 1406.10 November 26, 2007. The index would recover to a high of 1523.57 and continue on a series of lower lows and highs until its nadir of 666.79 March 9, 2009 for a 57.7% decline.2000
The 2000 market gave plenty of warning before the Dot.com plunge. The market faltered right after opening the New Year January 3rd. After reaching a high of 1478, the S&P 500 dropped to 1455.22 at the close. It dropped below 1400 the next three days and recovered to 1465.71 – the high January 20, 2000. From there it did a roller coaster ride down to the 1329.15 low of February 25 – a 10.1% drop from its high thus far. The market finally climaxed at 1552.87 March 24, 2000. It would drop precipitously April 14 to a low of 1339.40 – a 13.7% drop – but then slowly recovered to 1530.09 by September 1, 2000, only 1.5% below its all-time high. Thereafter it steadily went down with some sharp drops followed by rallies but only to the downtrend line. The market bottomed at 775.80 October 9, 2002 for a 50.1% decline.1987
The 1987 bear market was a swift one. After vacillating to a high of 337.89 August 25, 1987, the S&P 500 dropped to 308.58 by September 8 – an 8.7% hit. It quickly recovered to 328.94 by October 2, only 2.6% down from its high. It wobbled to a close below 300 October 15 before crashing the next Monday to close at 224.84 – a loss of 20.5% for that day. It would close lower December 4, 1987 at 223.92 but the low point for the move came the day after the plunge, October 20, when it dipped to 216.46 for a loss of 36.0% from the August high.1973
This, along with the 1968 bear market, were part of the mega bear market that spanned 1967 – 1982. The S&P oscillated within the 100 and 110 range for most of the year. It cleared the 110-barrier in late summer only to dip below it again before making its final surge as the year closed. It peaked at 119.79 December 12, 1972 and then dropped 4.3% to 114.63 December 21, 1972. The New Year propelled the index higher reaching a top of 121.74 January 11, 1973 – a 1.6% gain from the previous high. It quickly dropped to 111.85 by February 8 and then proceeded to careen downward over a series of bumps until hitting bottom at 60.96 October 4, 1974 – a 49.9% loss.1968
After an initial drop to start the year, the market climbed steadily from March through November finally topping December 2, 1968 when the S&P 500 maxed out at 109.37. The index dropped to 96.63 by January 13, 1969 (an 11.6% drop), fizzled in its rally coming within 0.43 points of the low March 17, and then rallied all the way up to 106.74 May 14, 1969. After coming within 2.4% of the top it succumbed finally hitting bottom May 26, 1970 at 68.61. That was a 37.3% haircut.1962
The stock market steadily climbed from October 1960 to December 1962 when the S&P 500 topped out at 72.64 December 12, 1962. Then it dipped to 67.55 January 24, 1963 for a 7.0% loss. The index quickly went back to 70 the next week and eked out a small gain the next month finally peaking at 71.44 March 15, 1.7% below the high. Thereafter, the index plunged to 51.35 June 25, 1962 for a 29.3% decline.1946
The market had been on a tear since the latter part of World War II and started 1946 the same way gaining 8% by February. Intraday highs and lows for the S&P 500 were not available for the analysis so, hereafter, Dow Jones Industrial Average closes will be used. The Dow Jones closed at 206.61 February 5, 1946. The index then plunged 10% to close at 186.02 February 26. It quickly recovered its previous high and surpassed it on a bucking horse ride up to 212.5 May 29, 1946 – a 2.9% gain from its previous high. The bumpy ride continued until August when the index reached 204.52 on August 13 and then fell in exhaustion finally closing at 163.13 October 9, 1946 for a 23.2% decline. Despite a number of rally attempts, the market would continue to struggle until February 1948 with a maximum loss of 28%.1937
After a precipitous drop from 1929 to 1932, the market seemed to be on recovery mode until it plateaued in early 1937. The Dow Jones closed at 194.4 March 10, 1937 to mark the end of the uptrend. The index then drifted lower for three months until bottoming June 14, 1937 at 165.51 for a 14.9% loss. It spent the next two months on a steady climb eventually topping at 189.34 August 16, 2.6% below the previous high. That was its last hurrah as the market plunged 49.1% to its 98.95 March 31, 1938 Dow Jones close.1929
Much like the 2000 market, the Big Crash of ’29 gave plenty of warning. After going sideways for the first half of the year, the market went through a 10.0% correction when it swanned from a 326.16 Dow Jones close May 6 to 293.42 May 27. Thereafter, it rose undaunted until reaching the market top close of 381.17 September 3, 1929. It drifted lower, slowly at first, but then gained momentum until reaching a low point Friday, October 4 with a 325.17 Dow Jones close – a 14.7% loss. It made a mad dash effort to recover the next week but was only able to manage a 352.86 close October 10. At 7.4% lower than the September high, this was the lowest percentage close to a previous high of any of the major bear markets. Then again, this was the granddaddy of all bears. Ten trading days later, on October 24, the index closed below 300. It dived Monday, October 28 and again the next day closing at 230.07. The market continued its plummet until eventually reaching bottom July 8, 1932 when the Dow Jones closed at 41.22 for a record 89.2% decline.ConclusionHistorical data shows that every major bear market since 1923 always provided investors with a warning. After seemingly peaking, they went through a significant decline before rising again only to plummet thereafter. In two instances, 2000 and 1929, it gave two warnings; the first a correction months before peaking, and the second after peaking.Declines after the initial peak ranged from 14.9% to 4.3% with an average of 10.8% and a median of 11.6%. In three out of the nine cases, 2007, 1973 and 1946, the second peak was lower than the first. The range was from a loss of 7.4% to a gain of 2.9% with an average of -1.4% median of -1.7%. Taking out the 1929, 7.4% outlier, the average was -0.63% and the median -1.6%. The time between the two peaks ranged from 30 days to 5.4 months with an average of 96.7 days and a median of 93 days.Starting from the premise we are in the beginning stages of a major bear market, and having gone through a 10% correction, what is in store for us? Surveying the data, it turns out we are average. There seemed to be no relationship between the severity of the bear market and the time lapse between the two peaks. However, five out of the six times the market went through a bonafide correction, 10% or more, it took months, between 2.9 and 5.4 months, for the market to top and begin its downturn in earnest. The notable exception was the Crash of 1929, which only took 37 days between the first and seconds peaks. Although there was no consistent pattern for depth of the initial decline and the total decline, it is notable that the four largest initial drops led to declines of 49% or more – a level only achieved by the 1973 bear market after only a 4.3% decline. There is no discernible relationship between the initial decline and second peak level, nor the total decline and second peak level.It could be that Morgan Stanley’s prediction this Monday, that a slowdown may loom starting in the second quarter, may be correct. We have already gone above the -7.4% level from 1929, so it would seem this market does not correlate all that well to that one and the wait to the next decisive peak will be measured in months. Regardless, I would caution all to watch the market’s advance very carefully. If the S&P 500 gets within 2.6% of the 2872.87 January 26 top, i.e. 2798, that is your signal to exit the stock market. No sense being greedy about the last 1 or 2 percent gains and risk losing much more.

Investing in Search Engine Optimization should be a weighed decision like other marketing expenses. Calculating ROI for SEO can be more difficult than other advertising because costs and returns are often not as concrete, but with some ballpark figures, estimating your SEO ROI becomes a doable task.Return
Before considering an investment in SEO, you should consider the payoff. If there’s not much potential for payoff, there’s no reason to make an investment. Calculating your potential return will also help you determine how much you should be able to invest in SEO.The first question you’ll need to ask is where your revenue stream will be coming from. Are you getting AdWords clicks to generate income? Do you have a product you’re selling online? Are you promoting a service to try to get new clients? Next you’ll need to find out how much traffic you anticipate getting after your site is ranking in the search engines. There are tools that make estimating traffic for a search term easy. Keep in mind that the majority of the clicks from a search go to the top 3 results.Finally you’ll have to tackle the most complicated part of the return calculation and estimate the number of people who are likely to follow through and become “customers”. For Adword clicks, around 1-5 percent will become customers by clicking on the ad. When selling a product or service, the number of consumers that convert to customers will largely depend on your industry as well as how well your site sells the product.PPC Investment
Pay Per Click advertising is one of the quickest ways to start showing up in search results. It’s a great place to start because the initial investment is low. After investing $100 into your account, you may be able to get a feel for how effective your ad and landing page are.Unfortunately, PPC is expensive in the long run. It’s really not an investment approach at all. When you want additional advertising, you simply add funds to your account. The click through rate of paid advertisement is significantly lower than organic listings, and there is less trust from the user because anyone can pay for advertisement. A moderate AdWords budget would be around $20 per day. How many clicks that would translate into depends on the keywords you’re targeting. Budgeting for a year, that would be just over $7,000, and the 3 year cost would be $21,000.SEO Company Investment
Hiring an SEO company to handle your SEO is definitely more of an investment approach to SEO. After the initial SEO is done, any additional work the SEO firm does should help improve existing organic rankings. SEO companies charges for SEO work in different ways. Some of the more popular ways to price SEO are charging by the hour, charging by the project, and charging per month. It’s probably unrealistic to think that you’ll only need an SEO company for the few months that it will take to get you to rank for your search term. Without semi-regular SEO, your website will gradually be outranked by websites that are actively working on their SEO.Paying an SEO company for optimization services usually gives pretty good results. The results aren’t immediate like Pay Per Click, but the payoff once you start showing up in the rankings is significantly better. Assuming you’ve got a good SEO company, the limiting factor will be your SEO advertising budget. If we assume that you want your website to stay at the top of the search results long-term, you’ll need more than just a one-time SEO charge. To simplify the calculations, we’ll look at the per month SEO billing since it’s set up for long term results. $200 per month for the service is somewhere in the middle of the lower and upper end charges for this service. Per year, this ends up being $2,400, and after 3 years, it’s $7,200.SEO Training Investment
Investing in your own SEO education is a smart move for people who don’t mind putting in the needed time and effort. The amount of resources you put into the SEO is completely up to you. If you’re wanting to rank higher, you just attack your SEO goal smarter and harder.Whether the entire staff attends a workshop, a few attend a webinar, or you get one on one SEO training will depend on your specific situation. It’s not as much about how you get the training as it is that you learn the concepts. After applying learned SEO concepts, you’ll start to increasingly see dividends on the training.Workshop lengths for learning SEO range from a few hours to a few days. On average, you can attend a workshop for about $1,500. While the initial financial investment for SEO training is high, the savings over time makes up for the up-front cost. The three year estimated PPC total is 14 times higher than the SEO Training course. The further out the calculation goes, the more SEO Training makes the most sense.

This was not an attempt to get the employee fired we need more people working these days. I stated in fact I would rather you keep him on, with my strategy I have a system that will train every single one of your employees on the importance of your reputation but that’s another message this message is about the report only, and I have no plans to put this businesses name on public display.This is just something I think start-up business owners as well as seasoned businesses should keep an eye on when sections of their business deals directly with the public.Also for businesses just in the planning stages the problem outlined below could happen in your business one day as well, especially if you are a start up business and plan to grow. The events described below are all true and could be present in whatever business you are in this statement applies to you.There has been a major shift in marketing, you and every other consumer wants to do business with a reputable business, when you network, you want to do so with a reputable business, right.People will search the internet and check out your reputation before ever visiting your website or your business and they are doing business with the most reputable business. If your reputation says you cannot be trusted the consumer will just find someone they can trust.There are many ways to find out if you have a reputation problem, here is just one way. If you type into a Google search any business name and their city, what you will see are the directories and other places their reputation shows up. The person searching may have only your name and phone number and they want to know more about you or they may be simply searching just be looking for directions to your business.Did you know that all they need to do is type in the business name and the phone number and your reputation is on display for the world to see?Why is this important? There was a study done not long ago and what was discovered was that consumer opinions posted online are trusted more than businesses realize, and the consumers posting are your customers.As posted on the ‘Nielsen: Global Consumers’ Trust in ‘Earned’ Advertising Grows in Importance says “Ninety-two percent of consumers around the world say they trust earned media, such as word-of-mouth and recommendations from friends and family, above all other forms of advertising.”An Employee Destroying His Employers Reputation and Causing Massive Loss of Revenue With One Simple ActI was allocating some freight for relocation at a local distribution center for a popular well know business which I shall keep their name private but the city was in Atlanta, Georgia recently and I filed this report with the CEO about the damage that could be done to the business reputation and after reading it what do you think the response was?The ReportOn yesterday 1-6-2014.This should have been a 10 to 15 minute turn around but ended up being over 1 hr an 45 minutes because of an employee that was unaware that his actions can harm the company’s reputation and untimely cause the company to lose business.I’ve been picking up freight here for years and have seen the 1st shift shipping clerk first hand do what is stated below to truck drivers and more time after time over the years.For example if a person let’s say it was a “Truck Driver” that approaches the window he/she gets ignored until the clerk feels like it. The astounding thing about this is the clerk with his peripheral side vision he can see you and when he does decide to look at the driver it’s like what do you want?You are bothering me, now consider this the owner does not know anything about this display of attitude being displayed. The shipping clerk forgot he represents the business owner, this is not his business to treat customers how he wants to and when he wants to.I’m looking for businesses that want to make a change from within, businesses that want their employees to want to give great customer service and build a great 5 star reputation.As you read this article please note how many people dropped what they were doing to deal with this problem.Here are the facts as they happened on 1-6-2014.I presented the clerk with the pickup number and immediately left the window to get out of his way because I did not want the same experience happening to me that I have seen happened to other drivers. The shipping clerk looked into his computer system for the load and calls me back to the window and says “that’s a bad number it’s not in my system”.No argument from me, I asked for a recheck but did not get it, so I call my dispatcher the carrier and asks that he double checks his information, which he did, he calls the sales person who booked the load and they both check the website where the load was booked to confirm it was in fact a good pickup load number and it was. He calls me back and tells me it’s good and asks me to once again ask the shipping clerk to recheck.I had already asked and the shipping clerk would not recheck but I asked again. The clerk says it’s not in my system and would not even attempt to look beyond that point.I once again called and reported that to my dispatcher “the carrier” and from their end they called someone else at the shipper “XXXXX” that was shipping the load and located a second PO#, and the trailer the load was on and once again asked me to pass the information on to the clerk and ask for a recheck but he had already gone home.Before I got that call, I was watching him leave and as soon as he left I asked the next shift shipping clerk to double check and he found the load within 2 min.I got the 2nd shift supervisor involved and he did a lot of documentation to reprimand the employee with, another 20 minutes waiting and while he proceeded to get me checked out and said they would handle the problem on tomorrow.He says this person knows all he had to do was to get up and ask another person just feet’s away that had an updated list that had not yet been updated into the system.There is a dollar amount that is taken right from the bottom profit line for the businesses for every one that spent time on this problem all because one person forgot he works for someone else because they could have been working on other projects.Let’s look at some of the time loss, the terminal yard that I was taking the load to was 20 minutes away, but I spent over 1-3/4 hrs here which should have been a 15 minute turn around.1. Could not be dispatched on another load2. Dispatcher spent his time and his assistant’s time researching and verifying the load.3. The customer service for the shipper spent their time locating the load and relaying the information back to our dispatcher who called me back.4. There was a 2nd clerk doing the same job that had already been entered.5. The supervisor of the shipping clerk who was busy on another assignment until he was pulled away from that project to help get me going.6. There was equipment (the truck) that was sitting not being used, just idle.Imagine if this was your employee and your business that the shipping clerk worked for or a business that you know well.Can you see how it could easily an employee could harm your business, just imagine it could be another business that you know very well that has an employee doing the same thing and causing your clients to lose money right from the bottom line?I’m more interested in making a difference that will help businesses get more customers by ensuring every employee understands that this company’s reputation is on the line every time they interact with a customer.Let’s switch positions just for a second. Let’s take the event a little further; you know how people exploit the bad information online of offline, right.Some people could be angry enough at the shipping clerk to post this event as a review on the business directory listing, if it’s a bad review it’s not just going to go away, oh no. That bad review is going to hang around and may even be on the first page for years as the first thing people will see when they check this businesses reputation.Would you agree with my point here that if this were a published review of the business on their Google + listing and you had no prior knowledge of how reliable this distribution center was that this employee’s actions reflects badly upon his employer’s reputation as a reputable and reliable distribution center?This employee probably has already caused customers to find another distribution center that’s a given and could cause the company to lose this business and future business and it never crosses his mind that my employer is his customer.In fact I heard my dispatcher say to the sales person who booked this load that we should drop the load if that’s the attitude they are going to have.All the while it was not the attitude of the company shipping the product but rather one employee.And if we went online as the carrier and left this experience for other to read, or if I as a driver without my employer’s knowledge or consent wanted to get back at the shipping clerk, if I went online and left a bad review about the entire incident, hoping that other businesses may read it and decide to use another distribution center for their business how do you think it would impact the shipper.Can you feel the impact that could happen if this was your business, you as the business owner would never know anything about the review I left, and you cannot get it removed on your own if you were aware of my review. Information is shared all over the web so this review could also be posted on other directories, and on and on.Very Important point here: In all of this the actual business owner who’s reputation is on the table as being a reliable distribution center does not know anything about what’s really going on or how many times it has happened before.Keep in mind the years of hard work and many sacrifices the business owner and the CEO have made to get contracts and build the business up is on the table and they have no idea of what’s happening, one day they turn around and their customer is gone somewhere else.I have a solution to the problem but here’s the rift, I cannot tell the solution to the supervisor he does not have the power to do anything with it. His focus is to deal with the employee, right.The solution must be presented to the head of the company and come down from above, from the person who has the authority to do something with it down to the employee. It’s the person who’s reputation is on the table that has to be the one to make changes and those changes move down, the person at the bottom of the pile has no desire to want to make change that will improve the company, the sad truth is that they are only there to get a pay check and go home.Another option for me is if the solution is mentioned to the customer service person hoping that it is passed along to the decision maker they may be the very one’s that are creating the problem and surely they have no desire to pass this information on to the top.The problem is as I mentioned before in another example about the two truck drivers having a conversation about how to improve things as they are traveling down the road and they come up with some good points and ideas in the conversation but as soon as they part ways and go to their separate destinations everything said dies.If you are a business owner reading this or you know of a business that has employees that run their departments as if they own the business the focus needs to be on changing the culture, to get the employee to understand that their future with the company depends on their contribution to help build up the reputation and not tear it down.

When you are holding a corporate entertainment event, one of the most important things to do is to get entertainment for the event. This may seem pretty obvious considering the fact that entertainment is part of the concept of corporate entertainment. However, many times companies will choose the wrong type of entertainment and the wrong entertainment can cause serious problems with any corporate entertainment event. So, what can you do to ensure that you get the right entertainment?A successful corporate event is one that is not going to be forgotten and that is very important because you want your customers and your employees to remember the event for a long time. This helps to build business, improve productivity and get better morale within the company. There are many different kinds of corporate entertainment acts that you can choose from. Really it depends on what you want for the event and what you think the audience will enjoy. Some of the choices for acts that you have include:· Comedians· Bands· Solo musicians· Actors· Circus Acts· Contortionists· Look-a-likes· MagiciansA good idea is to talk with your employees and do a survey. Ask them what they want to see at the event for entertainment and then use that as a basis for what you are going to choose. When you get entertainment that fits the corporate event you get something that can make the event something to remember for many years to come.As the organizer of the corporate event, you have the task of finding good entertainment and by talking with employees and customers; you will get exactly what you need for the event. Remember, the entertainment should not only be memorable, but fun as well.

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#EANF#

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Your stocks to watch for the week ahead are Cheniere Energy (LNG), S&P 500 biotech giant Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Cardinal Health (CAH), Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Genuine Parts (GPC).

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While the market remains in correction, with analysts and investors wary of an economic downturn, these five stocks are worth adding to watchlists. S&P 500 medical giants Vertex and Cardinal Health have been holding up, as health-care related plays tend to do well in down markets.

Steel Dynamics and Genuine Parts are both coming off strong earnings as both the steel and auto parts industries report optimistic outlooks. Meanwhile, Cheniere Energy saw sales boom in the second quarter as demand in Europe for natural gas continues to grow.

Major indexes have been making rally attempts with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 testing weekly support on Friday. With market uncertainty, investors should be ready for follow-through day breakouts and keep an eye on these stocks.

Cheniere Energy, Cardinal Health and VRTX stock are all on IBD Leaderboard.

Cheniere Energy Stock
LNG shares rose 1.1% to 175.79 during Friday’s market trading. On the week, the stock advanced 3.1%, not from highs, bouncing from its 21-day and 10-week lines earlier in the week.

Cheniere Energy has been consolidating since mid-September, but needs another week to forge a proper base, with a potential 182.72 buy point formed on Aug. 10.

Houston-based Cheniere Energy was IBD Stock Of The Day on Thursday, as the largest U.S. producer of liquefied natural gas eyes strong demand in Europe.

Even though natural gas prices are plunging in the U.S. and Europe, investors still see strong LNG demand for Cheniere and others.

The U.K. government confirmed last week that it is in talks for an LNG purchase agreement with a number of companies, including Cheniere.

In the first half of 2021, less than 40% of Cheniere’s cargoes of LNG landed in Europe. That jumped to more than 70% through this year’s second quarter, even as the company ramped up new export capacity. The urgency of Europe’s natural gas shortage only intensified last month. That is when an explosion disabled the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia that had once supplied 40% of the European Union’s natural gas.

In Q2, sales increased 165% to $8 billion and LNG earned $2.90 per share, up from a net loss of $1.30 per share in Q2 2021. The company will report Q3 earnings Nov. 3, with investors seeing booming profits for the next few quarters.

Cheniere Energy has a Composite Rating of 84. It has a 98 Relative Strength Rating, an exclusive IBD Stock Checkup gauge for share price movement with a 1 to 99 score. The rating shows how a stock’s performance over the last 52 weeks holds up against all the other stocks in IBD’s database. The EPS rating is 41.

Vertex Stock
VRTX stock jumped 3.4% to 300 on Friday, rebounding from a test of its 50-day moving average. Shares climbed 2.2% for the week. Vertex stock has formed a tight flat base with an official buy point of 306.05, according to MarketSmith analysis.

The stock has remained consistent over recent weeks, while the relative strength line has trended higher. The RS line tracks a stock’s performance vs. the S&P 500 index.

Vertex Q3 earnings are on due Oct. 27. Analysts see EPS edging up 1% to $3.61 per share with sales increasing 16% to $2.2 billion, according to FactSet.

The Boston-based global biotech company dominates the cystic fibrosis treatment market. Vertex also has other products in late-stage clinical development that target sickle cell disease, Type 1 diabetes and certain genetically caused kidney diseases. That includes a gene-editing partnership with Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP).

In early August, Vertex reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and raised full-year sales targets.

S&P 500 stock Vertex ranks second in the Medical-Biomed/Biotech industry group. VRTX has a 99 Composite Rating. Its Relative Strength Rating is 94 and its EPS Rating is 99.

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Cardinal Health Stock
CAH stock advanced 3.2% to 73.03 Friday, clearing a 71.22 buy point from a shallow cup-with-handle base and hitting a record high. But volume was light on the breakout. CAH stock leapt 7.3% for the week.

Cardinal Health stock’s relative strength line has also been trending up for months.

The cup-with-handle base is part of a base-on-base pattern, forming just above a cup base cleared on Aug. 11.

Cardinal Health, based in Dublin, Ohio, offers a wide assortment of health care services and medical supplies to hospitals, labs, pharmacies and long-term care facilities. The company reports that it serves around 90% of hospitals and 60,000 pharmacies in the U.S.

S&P 500 stock Cardinal Health will report Q1 2023 earnings on Nov. 4. Analysts forecast earnings falling 26% to 96 cents per share. Sales are expected to increase 10% to $48.3 billion, according to FactSet.

Cardinal Health stock ranks first in the Medical-Wholesale Drug/Supplies industry group, ahead of McKesson (MCK), which is also showing positive action. CAH stock has a 94 Composite Rating out of 99. It has a 97 Relative Strength Rating and an EPS rating of 73.

Steel Dynamics Stock
STLD shares shot up 8.5% to 92.92 on Friday and soared 19% on the week, coming off a Steel Dynamics earnings beat Wednesday night.

Shares blasted above an 88.72 consolidation buy point Friday after clearing a trendline Thursday. STLD stock is 17% above its 50-day line, definitely extended from that key average.

Steel Dynamics’ latest consolidation could be seen as part of a larger base going back six months.

Steel Dynamics topped Q3 earnings views with EPS rising 10% to $5.46 while revenue grew 11% to $5.65 billion. The steel producer’s outlook is optimistic despite weaker flat rolled steel pricing. STLD reports its order activity and backlogs remain solid.

The Fort Wayne, Indiana-based company is among the largest producers of carbon steel products in the U.S. It engages in metal recycling operations along with steel fabrication and produces myriad steel products.

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STLD stock ranks first in the Steel-Producers industry group. STLD stock has a 96 Composite Rating out of 99. It has a 90 Relative Strength Rating, an exclusive IBD Stock Checkup gauge for share-price movement that tops at 99. The rating shows how a stock’s performance over the last 52 weeks holds up against all the other stocks in IBD’s database. The EPS rating is 98.

Genuine Parts Stock
GPC stock gained 2.8% to 162.35 Friday after the company topped earnings views with its Q3 results on Thursday. For the week GPC advanced 5.1% as the stock held its 50-day line and is in a flat base.

GPC has an official 165.09 flat-base buy point after a three-week rally, according to MarketSmith analysis.

The relative strength line for Genuine Parts stock has rallied sharply to highs over the past several months.

On Thursday, the Atlanta-based auto parts company raised its full-year guidance on growth across its automotive and industrial sales.

Genuine Parts earnings per share advanced 19% to $2.23 and revenue grew 18% to $5.675 billion in Q3. GPC’s full-year guidance is now calling for EPS of $8.05-$8.15, up from $7.80-$7.95. The company now forecasts revenue growth of 15%-16%, up from the earlier 12%-14%.

During the Covid pandemic, supply chain constraints caused a major upheaval in the auto industry, sending prices for new and used cars to record levels. This has made consumers more likely to hang on to their existing vehicles for longer, driving mileage higher and boosting demand for auto replacement parts.

Fellow auto stocks O’Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY) and AutoZone (AZO) have also rallied near buy points amid the struggling market. O’Reilly reports on Oct. 26.

IBD ranks Genuine Parts first in the Retail/Wholesale-Auto Parts industry group. GPC stock has a 96 Composite Rating. Its Relative Strength Rating is 94 and it has an EPS Rating of 89.